Critical Questions on the Role of Turkey in the Ukraine-Russia Crisis

How Russia’s Invasion Has Changed Ukraine-Turkey Relations

It is difficult to claim that Russia’s invasion has positively or negatively changed Ukraine-Turkey Relations. Diplomatic relations between the two countries started in the 1990s when Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Ukraine's independence. Since then, the two countries have never been parties to a common crisis. The continuation of these friendly relations since the beginning of the war is compatible with the balance strategy based on mutual benefits followed by Turkey and Ukraine. 

Do you think Turkey is playing both sides in the war? How long can Turkey play both sides in the Ukraine war if so?

Many factors affect Turkey's view of the Ukraine crisis, from being a riparian to the Black Sea, which develops bilateral relations with Ukraine and Russia separately, sovereignty over the straits critical for access to the Black Sea, to being Turkey is a NATO member. In the last 30 years, Turkey has developed a sui generis relationship model with Russia and Ukraine separately. This relationship model can be described as a policy of partial cooperation. In other words, the problems between the two countries should be handled by balancing or replacing one with the other by separating them. This strategy, which the Kyiv and Moscow administrations are also aware of, has been frequently articulated by President Erdogan during the crisis, "we neither give up on Russia nor Ukraine." 

In a realist international relations paradigm, this strategy of balance is understandable. Inevitably, Turkey is one of the most affected countries since it has close economic, commercial, and military relations with both countries. On the one hand, Turkey's trade volume with Ukraine for agricultural products has been expanding for years. On the other hand, Russia has become the primary country in energy imports. Regarding Russia's decision to annex, Turks explicitly made a statement, “It means a clear violation of Ukraine's political unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.” on the other hand, by not participating in the Western sanctions against Russia, they have not further gotten worsen its deteriorating economy and did not further offend Putin. It is indisputable that the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and sanctions will have a catastrophic effect on the Turkish economy, which has now reached an extraordinary level, and naturally for the AKP government. In addition to the energy supply and energy cost, which are currently the primary agenda of the country, it has been in serious trouble due to the global increase in food prices. 

The Ukrainian side also understands the sensitive role of the Turks in the region. Although Turkey does not impose sanctions against Russia, it appreciates the humanitarian, diplomatic, moral, and military support that Turkey offers. Turkey's continued supply of effective armed drones to the Ukrainian armed forces and the fact that it closed its straits to all warships at the beginning of the war shows that it has done more than other NATO countries. 

How does Russia fit into Turkey’s broader foreign policy strategy?

In the last ten years, Turkey-Russia relations have also witnessed essential developments. In addition to some diplomatic and military initiatives the two countries took in consultation with each other in Syria and Libya, a new era began in the strategic cooperation between Ankara and Moscow, with the first parts of the advanced Russian air defense system S-400 reaching Turkey. Many experts following Turkey-Russia relations interpret Ankara's determination to purchase Russian S-400 missiles despite the US administration's sanctions warnings as a sign of a new axis shift in Turkish foreign policy. There has been an apparent rapprochement between Turkey and Russia on some political and economic issues. However, it would be wrong to evaluate this situation only in light of the tensions in Turkey's relations with the West. Therefore, it would be helpful to go beyond the axis shift debates that have come to the fore in local and foreign media in the recent period and review the global, regional, and national dynamics that shape Turkey's expectations from its strategic cooperation with Russia.

Considering all these developments, it may be early to claim that Turkey and Russia have formed a genuine strategic partnership. Differences in approach to regional issues still need to be improved in Turkey-Russia relations. In addition, despite all the troubles with the West, it is unrealistic to expect Turkey, as a NATO member, to collaborate with Russia on every issue. Ankara hopes to make significant gains from its cooperation with Moscow in the short term at the global, regional, and national levels. However, there are still common interests between the USA and the EU on many issues.

How will this war affect Turkey’s interests in the region?

The tension in the region is seriously affecting Turkey's economy, regional security, and relations with the West. By following active diplomacy, Turkey calls the international community to duty against Russia's aggression; on the other hand, it is trying to calm the crisis that has turned into a conflict by using its unique relations with the parties. On the other hand, Turkey is reaching out to the cognate Crimean Tatar people in Ukraine and is making an intense effort to evacuate the Turkish citizens from the conflict zones. The new situation created by the conflict transforms many dynamics, including Turkey, creating certain risks and offering opportunities for Turkey.

The most critical impact of the conflict situation on Turkey should be seen in its economy. Russia's aggressive attitude can make a positive contribution to Turkey's geo-economy. Russia's aggressive attitude will result in European countries turning to alternative energy sources in the upcoming period. Projects such as TANAP, built over the Southern Gas Corridor project and currently performing this task, can thoughtfully contribute to Turkey's geopolitical importance and economic income.

Another critical dimension of the conflict for Turkey is the prominence of its geopolitical position due to its position within the Western alliance NATO. Turkey's obligations under the Montreux Agreement are also among the issues that have come to the fore in the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Restrictions imposed by Turkey will affect the movement of Russian warships, which also have a fleet in the Mediterranean.